Murrow Edited by Harold Gold This just might do nobody any good. At the end of this discourse a few people may accuse this reporter of fouling his own comfortable nest, and your organization may be accused of having given hospitality to heretical and even dangerous thoughts. But I am persuaded that the elaborate structure of networks, advertising agencies and sponsors will not be shaken or altered. I have no technical advice or counsel to offer those of you who labor in this vineyard the one that produces words and pictures.
I would like to start out by trying to differentiate between seasonal forecasting and weather forecasting for the next week or so. All weather forecasting involves a percentage of guessing. By the time you get into seasonal forecasting, there is little proven science and methodology behind those forecasts- at least methods that truly work.
Most seasonal forecasts are really just creative writing using meteorological terms! Things like "Analog Years" is a favorite among some forecasters out there. The problem with that method is that we do not fully understand what causes large scale weather patterns to persist.
Thus saying something like: So the sore throat I have now must also Soap box speech strept throat. It takes a good understanding of what is causing the current weather trends to be able to say what factors will influence the weather in the coming months and we are just not there yet.
With that now said, there is one mechanism that has proven to have an effect on the weather in the US on a seasonal scale and that is El Nino- the dreaded "Boy Child", or anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of the Equator.
Over the past decade or so, most snow lovers were trained to hate El Nino because it was being blamed for just about everything that happened in the weather, including poor snow years in the Midwest.
The most popular notion given out in the past decade or two was that when an El Nino was going on, warmer than average temps were an almost sure bet across the Canadian Prairie Provinces as well as the north central US, including many of the favorite snowmobiling areas of the Midwest and into central and western Canada.
The good news for us snow lovers is that this idea has been modified some. The winter of was spent with weak El Nino conditions and this resulted in most areas of the Midwest seeing a cold and fairly snowy Jan and Feb and a good portion of the northern Midwest seeing below average temps and above average snowfall for the winter of A strong El Nino still means bad news for the northern US, with temps generally running above average and snowfall generally below average.
The stronger the El Nino, the worse the news in most cases. In contrast to El Nino, the stronger the La Nina, the less likely this cold anomaly is like to be. La Nina also can produce above average temps in the far southern Midwest, although these warm anomalies rarely reach as far north as the true snow grounds for the Midwest.
A method that I have talked about in the past and like to use to try and get some kind of a heads up on what the winter will bring is also very simplistic, but does hold some merit.
And that is to observe what happens in the weather with respect to the "averages" for a particular region.
To be more specific, the larger the period of time you are looking at, the closer to "normal" the numbers will be for temp and precip. No drought lasts forever, they are always broken, it always rains again.
No flood lasts forever, the rains always stop and within a period of time, things return to "normal".
The same can be said for temps. Cold snaps come and go, so do heat waves.
Nothing lasts forever in the weather.A soapbox is a raised platform on which one stands to make an impromptu speech, often about a political subject. The term originates from the days when speakers would elevate themselves by standing on a wooden crate originally used for shipment of soap .
Speech Technology for the Real World. If you develop voice-enabled apps and services for children, you might have noticed that the speech recognition technology you use doesn’t quite live up to the hype. You can purchase pure soap flakes in a box but the cheapest way to make this slime is by grating your own flakes from pure soap bars.
It doesn't take long and is a more cost effective way to make it.
a box or small platform that someone stands on to give a speech to people in an outdoor, public place See the full definition for soapbox in the English Language Learners Dictionary Keep scrolling for more. some readers don't appreciate that she sometimes uses her book blog as a soapbox for her political views.
SOAPBOX SPEECH How to Write an Outline Hook Write sentences grabbing the audience's attention. Background sentences defining the issue and explaining its significance.